‘Trade With The Elite Webinar Contributors’ Spotlight’: Frank Ochoaby MrTopStep : Wednesday 08:21:55 CT
A 15-year market veteran and author of the highly acclaimed book Secrets Of A Pivot Boss,Frank Ochoa brings his profitable and successful experience as a trading educator to all who cross his path.
Frank Ochoa (Photo Credit: Provided)
As founder of Ochoa Capital Management, LLC., Ochoa serves as a lead trader in the MrTopStep IM-Pro Trading Room. There, he brings trading ideas and tactics, breaking news from the trading floor and other pertinent information for that beginning as well as seasoned trader, on a consistent basis.
Ochoa has also spearheaded Pivot Boss, an entity dedicated to bringing traders market analysis as well as educational content. “We [here at Pivot Boss] specialize in utilizing price-based, market-generated indicators, but also analyze the market using classical technical analysis,” according to the Pivot Boss website. “We bring a fresh perspective to our trading and analysis and we look forward to fostering a community of knowledgeable and confident traders.”
With over a decade of experience with financial markets, Ochoa’s book Secrets of a Pivot Boss, remains a highly acclaimed resource for active traders and those honing their skills with the stock market. “The book has garnered wide-spread praise from traders all over the world and is routinely mentioned among the best trading books on the market,” adds Ochoa’s website.
As a public speaker on finances and trading, as well as a renowned trading educator, Ochoa is one of three professional traders who will participate in a live webinar on Saturday, February 15, 2014. Coined as one of the “Three Amigos” by MrTopStep.com, Ochoa will be on hand on Saturday the 15th, to answer questions as well as offer comprehensive tactics about obtaining the most from your trading and the stock market.
Click here to connect with Ochoa via his Pivot Boss website and read related content below!
RELATED CONTENT:‘Trade With The Elite Webinar Contributors’ Spotlight’: Kathy Garber‘Trade With The Elite Webinar Contributors’ Spotlight’: Jack Broz
Wall Street moves lower on Apple, interest rate worriesby Retuers : Tuesday 09:14:29 CT
(Reuters) – Wall Street ended lower on Tuesday for a third straight session as investors worried about a rise in interest rates while Apple’s shares hit their lowest in over six months.
The most disproportionately popular job in every stateby BusinessInsider.com : Tuesday 09:02:30 CT
Some jobs are disproportionately concentrated in certain states. Fashion designers flock to New York, Texas has an outsize share of petroleum engineers, and Floridians are much more likely to be motorboat operators than are other Americans.
We made a map that shows the most over-represented job in each state, using the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ recently released May 2013 “Occupational Employment Statistics.” Each state has far more of these jobs per capita than the nation as a whole.
We’ll discuss the methodology later. First check out the map:
These are not the most common jobs in these states — that map would be very boring, since the most common job in 42 states is “retail salesperson,” the most common job in the country.
Instead, this map shows jobs that are disproportionately concentrated in each state. For example, in New York, there are about 7,180 fashion designers, out of a total of 8,635,400 employed people. So fashion designers account for about 8.3 out of every 10,000 jobs in New York.
In the U.S. as a whole, there are about 17,370 fashion designers out of a total of 132,588,810 employed people. So about 1.3 of every 10,000 jobs in America are in fashion design.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics calls the ratio of these two rates the location quotient for a job in a particular area. The location quotient of fashion designers in New York is 8.3 divided by 1.3, which equals about 6.4. That is, there are about 6.4 times as many fashion designers per 10,000 total employed people in New York as in the U.S. as a whole.
The map shows the job in each state with the highest location quotient, among jobs with at least 1,000 people employed. These jobs exist in each state at much higher rates than in the country as a whole.
Disney profit rises but shares slip as revenue misses forecastsby Retuers : Tuesday 08:44:29 CT
(Reuters) – Media company Walt Disney Co on Tuesday posted record profit in the June quarter, but its revenue missed Wall Street expectations for the first time in two years and its shares fell more than 2 percent in extended trading.
Baxalta Inc. (NYSE:BXLT) stock hit its 52-week high price of $39.75 today, rising as much as 19.9% compared to the closing price on Monday. The stock gained as Shire PLC (ADR) (NASDAQ:SHPG) made an acquisition offer of approximately $30 billion for the company, pricing each share of the stock at $45.23. The offer made by Shire PLC shows a premium of about 36% on Monday's closing price. Notably, the stock hit $42.98 in the pre-market trading session today. The stock closed Tuesday's trading session up 11.92% at $37.1. More than 40.1 million shares of the stock were traded today, compared to an average daily trading volume of 4.77 million shares.
Sprint Corp (NYSE:S) stock opened today at $3.67, up by 9.8% compared to the closing price on Monday. The stock price jumped following first-quarter fiscal year 2015 (1QFY15) financial results reported by the company before markets opened today. The company incurred a loss of 1.1 cents per share, beating the consensus estimate of loss per share of 8.1 cents. Sprint continued to add customers in this quarter, as its churn rate hit a record low at just 1.56% for mainstream customers during the quarter.
However, the revenue fell short of the expectations at $8.03 billion, compared to the consensus estimate of $8.33 billion. The company forecasts EBITDA of $7.40 billion for fiscal-year 2015 (FY15), beating the consensus estimate of $7.21 billion. The stock reacted majorly to the beat in earnings and the guidance provided by the company for the full year. Sprint shares were up 4.49% trading at $3.49 at the closing bell on Tuesday.
eLong, Inc. (ADR) (NASDAQ:LONG) stock rose more than 20% today after the company received an acquisition offer from Tencent Holdings ADR (OTCMKTS:TCEHY). Tencent Holdings offered $18 per each share of eLong stock, which shows a premium of approximately 26.58% on Tuesday’s closing price. Notably, Tencent already owns a significant stake of approximately 15% in the company. The stock ended Tuesday's trading session up 19.76% at $17.03. Approximately 796,350 shares of the stock have already been traded, compared to an average daily trading of 94,525 shares.
Dollar, bond yields up on Fed rate riskby Retuers : Tuesday 08:14:29 CT
SYDNEY (Reuters) – Asian shares markets got off to a watchful start on Wednesday as the mounting risks of a hike in U.S. interest rates as early as next month lifted the dollar and sovereign bond yields, pressuring currencies across the region.
TriNet Group Inc. (NYSE:TNET) stock plunged more than 38% today, after the company's earnings release. The company reported financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2015 (2QFY15) after the markets closed on Monday. The company missed the earnings consensus estimate by 45.95%, along with a 11% miss on revenues. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.14 for the quarter, which missed the consensus EPS estimate of $0.26. Revenue for the quarter came in at $122.01 million, compared to the consensus estimate of $137.3 million.
TNET closed down 38.82%, at $16.33 today. Notably, the stock has traded today with an unexpectedly high volume of 11.99 million shares , compared to an average daily trade volume of just 764,000 shares.
Cognex Corporation (NASDAQ:CGNX) stock has dropped by more than 22% today on the back of financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2015 (2QFY15), which it reported after markets closed on Monday. The stock price has primarily reacted to the weak guidance given by the company for 3QFY15, as it expects revenues of $107.5 million, compared to the consensus estimate, of $140.5 million. The gross margin guidance also fell short of expectations at 70%, compared to the consensus estimate of 75.6%.
Revenue for the quarter fell short of expectations, at $143.8 million, which missed the consensus estimate of $150.13 million. However, the company reported EPS of $0.49, which is a marginal $0.02 better than the consensus estimate of $0.47. The stock closed down 22.14% today at $35. 5.37 million shares of Cognex stock traded today, compared to an average daily trade volume of fewer than one million shares.
Allstate Corp (NYSE:ALL) dropped 12% today, to a low of $61 after it released its financial results for the second quarter of the current fiscal (2QFY15), after markets closed on Monday. The company earned $0.63 per share for the quarter, which missed the consensus EPS estimate of $0.96 by 34.51%. This is the first miss on earnings by the company after consecutive beats in the past eight quarters. However, the revenues for the quarter, reported at $8.87 billion, surpassed the estimate of $8.77 billion.
The stock reacted significantly to the earnings miss, as it closed down 10.08% at $62.34 on Tuesday. About 13.15 million shares of the stock traded today compared to an average daily trade volume of 2.56 million shares.
U.S. luxury fashion retailer Neiman Marcus files for IPOby Retuers : Tuesday 07:44:29 CT
(Reuters) – U.S. luxury fashion retailer Neiman Marcus Group Inc filed with U.S. regulators on Tuesday for an initial public offering, the second time in two years it has unveiled plans to go public.
The US government may be partly to blame for skyrocketing tuitionby BusinessInsider.com : Tuesday 07:30:30 CT
Federal student loan limits changed in a few different ways from 2007-2011 that allowed students to borrow more money from the government, the New York Fed paper points out.
Average tuition also nearly doubled during this period, going from about $6,950 in 2001 to more than $10,000 in 2012 (prices given by the New York Fed in 2012 dollars).
The paper found that schools that were more reliant on federal loan subsidies disproportionately increased their sticker price tuition during this period.
Specifically, the New York Fed paper looked at three different types of student loans:
Subsidized loans, for students who demonstrate financial need
Unsubsidized loans, for students who don’t demonstrate financial need (these loans are more expensive than subsidized loans)
Pell Grants, which are based on financial need and do not have to be repaid
The New York Fed paper states that Pell Grants and subsidized loans raise “sticker price tuition of about 55 and 65 cents on the dollar, respectively.” Additionally according to the paper, unsubsidized loans raise tuition by 30%.
Below, you can see how tuition has risen as more federal student aid has become available:
Capital Controls Destroy Greek Small Businesses; Bank Shares Plunge Again; Record Contractionby Contributor : Tuesday 07:18:20 CT
economy, markets, stream
Record Manufacturing Contraction
Greece may as well have gone to hell in a handbasket. Carnage is everywhere one looks, but let’s start with the Markit Greece PMI report that shows record manufacturing contraction.
July saw factory production in Greece contract sharply amid an unprecedented drop in new orders and difficulties in purchasing raw materials. The headline seasonally adjusted Markit Greece Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® registered 30.2, well below the neutral 50.0 mark and its lowest ever reading.
Record contractions were registered for almost all variables monitored by the survey, including output, new orders, employment and stocks. There was also a record lengthening in suppliers’ delivery times.
July’s sharp decrease in the level of new business at manufacturers surpassed the previous record set in February 2012. Panel members commented on the impact of capital controls on demand, and also cited a generally uncertain operating environment which further weighed on sales. A sharp and accelerated decrease in new export orders (also a series record) added to the overall reduction in new work.
July’s survey signalled the steepest drop in factory employment ever recorded during the 16-plus years of data collection. The decrease was the fourth in successive months, following marginal job losses throughout the second quarter of the year.
A lack of availability of supplies meanwhile contributed to a rise in average purchase prices, with the rate of cost inflation accelerating from the previous month to the second-fastest since September 2012.
In contrast, prices charged by manufacturers for goods decreased to the greatest extent for over two years, the rate of decline notably more marked than the moderate pace of deflation recorded during the month before.
“Good and healthy companies that survived the crisis have been rendered helpless because they can’t import raw materials,” said Constantine Michalos, president of the Athens Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
As frustration mounts, the Piraeus port in Athens has become a maritime parking lot to about 8,000 shipping containers waiting for importers who cannot yet pay the outstanding bills on their shipments.
Rena Simou, a clothing retailer who operates outlets on several popular tourist islands, said her business is headed for collapse if she cannot deliver stock before mid-August when the summer tourist season begins to wind down.
“My boxes are waiting in customs but I can’t send the rest of the money from my Greek account. It’s a business disaster,” she said. “If the controls aren’t lifted soon retailers like me will become like east Europeans in the 1990s . . . We’ll be suitcase traders.”
Question for Rena
Why did you have a Greek bank account? The smart money got out long ago.
I’m not blaming people for being dumb. Rather, I simply point out that being economically illiterate has its consequences. Those lowest on the totem pole will take the hardest hit.
And the bailout?
No one but creditors have been bailed out. The average person on the street has been brutalized.
When the carnage appears to be over, those who were smart enough to get the hell out, will have plenty of money to come back in and purchase bankrupt businesses and properties at rock-bottom prices.
Market Reopens Shares Plunge
The stock market collapsed on yesterday following its restricted reopening.
Shares in Greek banks crashed 30% Monday as trading resumed on the Athens stock exchange for the first time since the country was nearly forced to abandon the euro last month.
The benchmark index in Athens opened nearly 23% lower, with banking stocks the biggest losers. The country’s four biggest lenders — Piraeus (BPIRF), Alpha Bank (ALBKF), the National Bank of Greece (NBG) and Eurobank all plunged 30% — the daily limit — immediately after the open.
Stocks in other sectors recovered slightly during the session but the index still shed more than 16% by the close.
Capital controls will destroy what’s left of Greece.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
This map shows Neiman Marcus stores and the number of super-rich people who live nearbyby BusinessInsider.com : Tuesday 07:14:31 CT
Luxury department store Neiman Marcus filed to go public Tuesday. While the company (which also owns Bergdorf Goodman) has stores in 19 states, including Washington DC, wealth intelligence firm Wealth-X noticed a trend when it came to the retailer’s preferred locations.
In 2013, the company mapped the distribution of ultra high net worth individuals in the US (defined as those with assets of $30 million or more) against locations of Neiman Marcus stores (not including ‘Last Call’ outlet locations).
The densest number of retail locations were in California, Florida, and New York, which together are home to more than 75% of Americans with over $30 million in assets.
“The emerging strategy for most retailers trying to capture the growing affluent market will be to use digital to drive retail traffic,” Wealth-X President David S. Friedman said at the time. “For this segment, the physical retail experience will be critical for capturing the growth in the affluent market.”
The map below shows where you can find Neiman Marcus stores in or near cities with high numbers of ultra wealthy individuals.
Telecom Italia weighs reorganization of business unit -Bloombergby Retuers : Tuesday 06:44:29 CT
(Reuters) – Italy’s Telecom Italia SpA is considering merging its OpenAccess business unit that leases its landline network to rivals with its wholesale business to avoid antitrust charges of as much as 4 billion euros ($4.35 billion), Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
TRUMP: The Fed has created a bubble that 'could explode' (DIA, SPX, SPY, QQQ, TLT, IWM)by BusinessInsider.com : Tuesday 06:30:30 CT
Donald Trump loves low interest rates.
But he’s also worried about them.
Speaking on Bloomberg TV’s “With All Due Respect,” Trump said that as a property developer he has “always loved” low interest rates.
This is because low interest rates allow Trump’s businesses to borrow money cheaply. Low interest rates also bring down the interest payments on mortgages attached to his properties.
And given that a good chunk of Trump’s wealth derives from his real estate holdings, this is good for business.
But Trump also thinks that the Federal Reserve’s policy of keeping interest rates near zero is inflating a bubble that “could explode.”
Trump added that, “from the country’s standpoint, I’m not sure [zero interest rates are] a good thing, because I really do think we’re creating a bubble.”
And so while Trump also has a considerable stock portfolio — which has likely been aided by the Fed’s policies — he thinks these policies could be dangerous.
As for Fed chair Janet Yellen, Trump said that she is “more of the same,” and when asked by Bloomberg which Fed chair he liked the best, Trump said he liked Paul Volcker — who aggressively raised interest rates to fight inflation in the early 1980s — “a lot.”
Exclusive: Boeing loses large satellite deal due to trade credit woes - sourcesby Retuers : Tuesday 06:14:28 CT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Boeing Co is scrambling to find alternate financing for a satellite contract worth “several hundred million dollars” that was scuttled by privately held commercial satellite provider ABS due to uncertainty about the future of the U.S. Export-Import Bank, three sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.
“I think there is a high bar right now to not acting, speaking for myself,” Mr. Lockhart said …
Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for July. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 210,000 payroll jobs added in July, down from 238,000 in June.
• At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $43.0 billion in June from $41.9 billion in May.
• At 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for index to increase to 56.2 from 56.0 in June.
• Also at 10:00 AM, Speech by Fed Governor Jerome Powell, The Structure and Liquidity of Treasury Bond Markets, At the Brookings Institute Conference: Are There Structural Issues in the U.S. Bond Markets?, Washington, D.C.
Travelers CEO steps down, cites progression of a 'variant' of ALS (TRV)by BusinessInsider.com : Tuesday 05:44:28 CT
Jay Fishman, CEO of insurance giant Travelers, will step down from his role, effective December 1.
In a letter to employees, Fishman said, “it appears likely that I am dealing with a variant of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis, or ALS.”
The Wall Street Journal noted that Fishman first publicly revealed the diagnosis in November, and citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Fishman’s condition had deteriorated in recent months.
Here’s the full letter sent by Fishman to employees.
To my partners and friends,
I am very pleased to announce that Alan Schnitzer will succeed me as Chief Executive Officer later this year, and will then join our Board of Directors. I will then assume the management role of Executive Chairman and remain on the Board. I look forward to working with Alan, the senior leadership team and all of you to build on our impressive record.
Those of you who have met Alan know that he is a leader of extraordinary talent, judgment, versatility and heart. He brings deep knowledge of our company and our business to his new role. We have benefited greatly from his many contributions in both business and corporate roles and from his insights and strategic thinking as a member of our senior leadership team. Alan is the ideal executive to lead Travelers into its next chapter.
At every company there comes a time for new leadership. Because of the progression of my neuromuscular condition, this time has come a little earlier than I had hoped. But given the strength of the company and with an exceptional leader in Alan more than prepared to become our CEO, there is good reason to make a change now.
Given the progression of the symptoms I have been experiencing since informing all of you of my illness, it appears likely that I am dealing with a variant of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis, or ALS. While this is a progressive disease, anyone who has seen me can tell you that I am more than able to play an active role in Travelers’ future.
I first became CEO of our predecessor company in 1998. When I was appointed CEO of The St. Paul in October 2001, our industry was on the verge of transformation. Amidst substantial changes in our industry, we executed the successful merger of St. Paul and Travelers and set our course as a return-focused company. These actions contributed significantly to our ability to deliver in good times and bad, through financial crises, periods of low interest rates, volatile weather and intense competition. Our total shareholder return over the past decade places us in the top tier of financial services firms and helped earn us a place as the only property casualty company in the Dow 30.
It is important to me that I let each of you know that I get way too much personal credit for the success we have experienced together. This is a very big place, and the strong sense of partnership here is just remarkable. There aren’t enough words or Chairman’s Awards for me to convey to you that I know that everything we have accomplished we have done together. The credit for our success is to be shared by everyone here. I am incredibly blessed to have been in the right place at the right time.
Thank you for what you do every day for our company. My family and I could not be more grateful for the outpouring of support and good wishes we’ve received from people both inside and outside the company over the past several months. This means more than you could ever imagine. I feel privileged and proud to work with such a great group of people and look forward to being part of Travelers’ bright future.
Telecom Italia weighs reorganization of business unit: Bloombergby Retuers : Tuesday 05:30:29 CT
(Reuters) – Italy’s Telecom Italia SpA is considering merging its OpenAccess business unit that leases its landline network to rivals with its wholesale business to avoid antitrust charges of as much as 4 billion euros ($4.35 billion), Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
The department store brand says it plans to open more stores and expand into new markets.
But while Neiman Marcus’ Baby Boomer customers shell out $300 for a sweater, the younger generations that will make up its future customers aren’t as willing to part with their cash.
In June, Bloomberg News profiled these buyers — called HENRYs, for “High Earners Not Rich Yet.”
People who make between $100,000 and $250,000 are “making very careful decisions” on discretionary purchases, luxury marketing expert Pam Danziger told Bloomberg. “That’s smart for them, but it’s certainly not good for the economy.”
Companies like Ralph Lauren, Coach, and Michael Kors are going after consumers aged 25-34 with money to spend but who aren’t rich, Danziger said in a recent report. These customers make up 18% of households, but as they suffer sluggish income growth, they are increasingly conservative with their dollars.
Neiman Marcus’ 43 stores, which includes the two Bergdorf Goodman stores in New York, cater to the richest consumers in the world, but the brand has tried to appeal to a mass market in recent years.
The retailer did a collaboration with Target in 2012, featuring designers like Tory Burch, Marc Jacobs, and Oscar de la Renta. Despite looking great on paper, the collaboration was a huge flop, with pieces marked down by 70% or more.
In 2013, Neiman Marcus executive Jim Gold told The Dallas Morning News that the brand was working to attract young customers with incomes of $75,000 or higher through cheaper items like cosmetics and denim.
There’s no mention of that in the latest IPO filing. The company does point to MyTheresa, a brand it acquired last year that’s aimed at “younger, fashion-forward, luxury customers, primarily from Europe, Asia and the Middle East.”
Neiman Marcus excels at tailoring the shopping experience for its customers.
“We are able to associate approximately 90% of our total revenues with specific customers. Additionally, we are able to associate substantially all browsing behavior on our digital platforms with unique individuals,” the company writes in its IPO filing. “By aggregating this data and employing advanced analytics, we are able to generate a single view of these customers.”
While the company is promising to grow by tapping into rising affluence, particularly overseas, this kind of attention to detail could prove difficult to scale once Neiman Marcus is a public company.
Luxury fashion retailer Neiman Marcus files for IPOby Retuers : Tuesday 05:02:27 CT
(Reuters) – Luxury fashion retailer Neiman Marcus Group Inc filed with U.S. regulators on Tuesday for an initial public offering of common stock.
MrTopStep’s Index Futures Recapby FairValue Trader : Tuesday 03:39:23 CT
Charts, Commentary, News
August 4th – The Calendars Most Bearish Day Since 1950
The overnight session began with a 4% rally in the Shanghai Composite after a change in margin rules forcing brokerages to ban short selling, however the bounce in China had little to none effect on worldwide markets as much of the European and Asian markets traded lower.
In the U.S., the day started with a light economic calendar and the S&P 500 futures (ESU15:CME) opened the regular session unchanged before rallying higher to yesterday’s open, failing there at the 2096 handle and thus proceeded to sell off 15 handles as the day went on before finding a low at 2081.50. However the bounce failed before reaching 10 handles and sold off in the closing minutes to end the day at 2083.00, down 8 handles on the day, just off the lows.
Taking part of the selling were again shares of Apple (AAPL) which suffer more than a 4% decline intraday. Most notable news was Bloomberg reporting that Fed Governor Lockart suggested conditions were favorable for a rise in interest rates in September. Also, mentioned in the MrTopStep chat room was the 3200 price target on the S&P 500 by Birinyi Associates. Interestingly, it was noted that Birinyi placed a very optimistic bullish target on the Dow Jones just before the 2007 peak.
Tomorrow’s economic calendar is much more full as we head into another statistically weak biased day. Wednesday’s this year have closed down 66% of occasions including 8 of the last 13 for the S&P 500 (^GSPC:SNP) . Intraday price action shows a series of lower highs since last Friday and should continue it’s choppy behavior into the Non-Farm Payroll number this Friday.
Tomorrow’s Notable Earnings: CBS Corp (CBS) Centurylink Inc (CTL) Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK Dish Network Corp (DISH) Dominion Resources Inc (D) Herbalife LTD (HLF) Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI) Ralph Lauren Corp (RL) Rosetta Stone Inc (RST) Sunoco LP (SUN) Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Time Warner Inc (TWX) Vitamin Shoppe Inc (VSI) Wendys Co (WEN)
Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar: MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET International Trade 8:30 AM ET Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index 8:30 AM ET Treasury Refunding Announcement 8:30 AM ET 3-Yr Note Announcement 8:30 AM ET 10-Yr Note Announcement 8:30 AM ET 30-Yr Bond Announcement 8:30 AM ET PMI Services Index 9:45 AM ET ISM Non-Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
Volume: 1,321,017 total
MOC: 180 Million to Sell
Bloomberg - U.S. Stocks Fluctuate Amid Earnings Reports; Apple Extends Fallby Contributor : Tuesday 01:00:55 CT
U.S. stocks fluctuated, after two days of declines, amid quarterly results from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. to Allstate Corp. while Apple Inc. slipped further into a correction.
Allstate lost 11 percent as the insurer’s profit plunged on a surge in auto claims. CVS Health Corp. fell 2 percent after narrowing its earnings forecast. Apple sank 3.3 percent to a six-month low. Regeneron and Sprint Corp. gained more than 4.5 percent as their earnings exceeded analysts’ forecasts. Baxalta Inc. surged 14 percent after Shire Plcoffered to buy the company for about $30 billion.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.2 percent to 2,093.84 at 1:04 p.m. in New York, below its average price during the past 100 days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 46.13 points, or 0.3 percent, to 17,552.07. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.3 percent.
“The turmoil, at least for the day, has subsided a bit,” said Bill Schultz, who oversees $1.2 billion as chief investment officer at McQueen, Ball & Associates Inc. in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. “We’re having a little more stability in the oil market. When investors look at the tail-end of earnings season, you’ve had some companies come out and disappoint, and they’ve been punished for it.”
The S&P 500 rose 2 percent in July, the best monthly gain since February, as earnings from Amazon.com Inc. and Google Inc. countered declines by energy and mining stocks. The index closed Monday 1.5 percent below a record set in May.
Reuters - U.S. factory orders rebound on strong demand for aircraftby Reuters : Tuesday 12:30:58 CT
New orders for U.S. factory goods rebounded strongly in June on robust demand for transportation equipment and other goods, a hopeful sign for the struggling manufacturing sector.
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday new orders for manufactured goods increased 1.8 percent after declining 1.1 percent in May.
Factory activity has been stymied by a strong dollar and spending cuts in the energy sector after last year’s sharp plunge in crude oil prices. Tepid global demand also has weighed on manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the domestic economy.
Those factors have eroded the profits of multinational companies like Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N), Procter & Gamble Co (PG.N), the world’s largest household products maker, and Whirlpool Corp (WHR.N), the global home appliances giant.
Though there are signs that the energy spending drag is easing, the dollar’s strength will likely remain a constraint. The dollar has gained 15 percent against the currencies of the United States’ main trading partners since June 2014.
Market Watch - Oil bounces as traders dare to ‘catch a falling knife’by MarketWatch.com : Tuesday 12:00:51 CT
Commentary, Crude oil, News
Oil prices bounced higher Tuesday, partly recovering from a sharp selloff in the prior session as Chinese equities regained their footing.
Brent-crude futures traded on London’s ICE Futures exchange LCOU5, +1.05% pared earlier gains but remained up 62 cents, or 1.3%, at $50.14 a barrel. The contract suffered a 5.2% slide on Monday pushing the global benchmark below $50 for the first time since January.
September West Texas Intermediate crude CLU5, +2.06% on the New York Mercantile Exchange added 94 cents, or 2.1%, to $46.11 a barrel. On Monday, the U.S. benchmark settled 4.1% lower at $45.17 a barrel, the lowest level for a most-active contract since March 19 and just slightly above a six-year low from mid-March.
“One day after commodities started the month of August getting crushed, today it seems that at least someone is willing to catch a falling knife,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, in a note.
Oil stabilized after the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +3.69% and other Chinese indexes gained ground, pushing higher after officials took further steps to inhibit short selling. A bounce by copper might also have helped sentiment amid a general sense that “maybe the selloff was overdone,” Flynn said.
New York Post - NY’s regulator cuts off Promontory Financial from consulting with banksby Contributor : Tuesday 11:30:00 CT
Commentary, News, Stocks
It’s cop versus cop in the latest battle over bad behavior on Wall Street.
New York’s financial watchdog on Monday effectively suspended a prestigious consulting firm after a probe found the Washington, DC, firm whitewashed a report from its client, UK bank Standard Chartered, to help it avoid sanctions for doing business with Iran.
The firm, Promontory Financial Group, founded 14 years ago by Gene Ludwig, the Comptroller of the Currency under President Clinton, is a heavy hitter on Wall Street, getting hired by banks around the world to make sure they comply with US laws.
Ludwig stocked Promontory’s board of advisers with other heavyweights, including Arthur Levitt Jr. and Mary Schapiro, former chairs of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Frank Zarb, the former Nasdaq chairman, Skip Hove, the former vice-chair of the FDIC, and Alan Blinder, former vice-chair of the Federal Reserve.
Good Morning – Today is Series S2L and the SPILL is up. Yesterday the changes on the chart showed 3 ascending darker green ascending LINES. These were placed to show where attempts to rally would appear if we had a down day. When I draw those and the red ones they are directional arrows. Anyway, mother nature kept me from going live yesterday until about 10 minutes AFTER the failure to recapture the 2098.5 OPENING (we always always write this # down) -SEE 11:36– . The depth of the drop from that high came in stronger than I anticipated.The KEY was killing the 2091.5 SPOT and the a.m. low @ ES 2089.5.A caution was given not to be too excited about the 2087.5 area EVEN THOUGH it was the first pass at the weekly PIVOT ( 20987.9). I am a firm believer that ES exact triple bottoms do not exist. The fourth pass breaks them and winds up being a quick stop run reversal or goes into breakdown or breakout (triple top) mode from my observations AND the key i to kill the .75 +,- from the exact 3x in order to lean towards Breakdown or Breakout vs. STOP RUN REVERSAL.What I JUST WROTE may assist you in protecting or attempting a trade if you think it through logically.
Anyway , there was no unicorn as expected at the 2087.5 triple bottom and as given, the 2083 SPOT to the 2084.75 old Yell beckoned. I mentioned that old yell because we were moving into a triple fibbo on cash from 2088.88-2090.72 CASH on the 5 min chart which most should be able to replicate. THIS IS WHERE the ‘surprise’ came into play: We went all the way to the 2080 roundie in a deeper move than anticipated and right to the EDGE of MOE (Margin of ERROR) for the 2088.88 cash lower lip on the support band.
DailyFX Research: Breakout on Tap Next Week? USDOLLAR Index Eyes Flag Topby DailyFx : Tuesday 10:30:38 CT
Event risk this week may jar the USDOLLAR Index from its two-plus week consolidation – at least that’s what traders are gearing up for. With several “medium” and “high” ranked data releases over the next few days, we don’t think it’s very likely that the recent ranges seen formed in EURUSD, GBPUSD, or USDJPY are likely to hold.
For GBPUSD in particular, the end of the week should be volatile. On Thursday, the Bank of England will hold its monthly policy meeting, but will also simultaneously release its policy minutes and the Quarterly Inflation Report; economists are dubbing its ‘Super Thursday.’ This should provide the market with a thorough, comprehensive, and insightful view of how BoE policymakers will proceed over the next few months – and perhaps prove to be quite the strong catalyst for the British Pound.
Cropcast Tuesday: Plains are drier Thursday, and wetter Fridayby MDA Weather : Tuesday 10:00:01 CT
Commentary, Grains, Softs
-Midwest is drier in northern areas in the 6-10 day period. Showers in northwestern areas should further improve moisture as well as crop conditions for corn and soybeans, while rains in southern and eastern areas should maintain favorable moisture there. The 6-10 day outlook is drier in northern areas. Temperatures are slightly warmer. The 11-15 day outlook is unchanged.
-Plains are drier Thursday, and wetter Friday. Active rains in central areas today and Wednesday will slow remaining harvesting a bit, while remaining harvesting in southern areas should finish up. The 6-10 day outlook is warmer. The 11-15 day outlook is unchanged.
-N. Plains/Prairies are warmer in the Prairies in the 6-10 day period. Rains should further improve moisture in the Prairies and northern Plains this week, and will be most beneficial in northwestern Alberta. The rains in the northern Plains will slow harvesting and drydown. The 6-10 day outlook is warmer in the Prairies. The 11-15 day outlook is drier in the northwestern Plains and southwestern Prairies. Temperatures are unchanged.
-Delta is warmer in the 6-10 day period. Rains in northeastern areas mid and late week should improve moisture a bit, but dryness will continue to build in southern areas. The 6-10 day outlook is warmer. The 11-15 day outlook is unchanged.
-No changes for Argentina. Additional rains in Buenos Aires, eastern Cordoba, southern Santa Fe, and southern Entre Rios will further improve moisture for wheat growth.
-No changes for Brazil. Dry weather in central and northern areas this week will allow wetness to continue to ease.
-No changes for Europe. Rains should remain quite limited across much of the region through next week, which will maintain moisture shortages and stress on summer crops in many areas. Heat will also continue to rebuild across central and eastern areas.
-No changes for FSU. Dryness continues to build across Ukraine, Belarus, and North Caucasus which will stress corn and sunflower growth but will favor winter wheat harvesting.
-No changes for China. Rains have improved moisture in northern North China Plain, and additional improvements are expected in southern and eastern North China Plain and northern Northeast China this week. However, some dryness will continue in west central Yangtze Valley. -No changes for India. Rains should improve moisture a bit in Maharashtra, but dryness will continue in Andhra Pradesh, northeastern Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu groundnut areas.
-No changes for Australia. Recent rains in Western Australia eased dryness and stress on wheat. However, some dryness continues in South Australia, and moisture will decline further in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland.
Last week TX 1N, NM, OK and KS got nice rains. Add TX 2N, 2S and 3 to that group. Rains last week fell on about 900k acres, and current rains are falling on roughly 1.05 Ma. Missing out is the big acreage of 1S, especially the dryland south of Lubbock. 1S planted nearly 3 Ma this year, so Mother Nature has teased the market with rains on 2 Ma but left dry 3 Ma that are more important. The market has thus acted more or less rational, as 40% of the acres in the Southern Plains got rains but 60% have not.
The Indian monsoon is performing well enough to look for average yields. Some areas in the extreme west and nw remain dry.
Industrial commodities continue to plunge, but row crops appear to be ceasing their steep fall. There is a lot of ambiguity on grain acreages and yields, and prices are not in the stratosphere anymore. We look for two-sided movement in grains until more is known on production. Sales for grains are all-round disappointing.
Cotton has absorbed some negative news with rains over the Southern Plains, even though coverage was spotty. Demand has been decent, and the new crop carryin will drop to around 3.9 Mb. Dec has held above 6300 since mid Mar and is seen as a value area. Unless it rains on the Lubbock district, we believe 6300 will hold. Specs can play here, while farmers need to watch for a poke above 6500 again to hedge. Hopefully that may come on a mild weather worry.
The Goldman CRB has moved below its major Jan low at 372, and has therefore satisfied the minimum for the final 5th down. However, that level can be anything below 372, and finding this low becomes more art than science. Wherever this low is, this index is in a very late-stage bear market. A completed pattern does not mean the CRB has to move into a bull market, as it has shown it can trade sideways for a long time, as in 2010-2014.
EURUSD: An Ending Diagonal Triangle in Actionby Elliott Wave : Tuesday 09:00:07 CT
Charts, Commentary, News
See how beautifully recent trading in the euro followed a high-confidence Elliott wave pattern
By Elliott Wave International
Remember how during the time of the Greek bailout a couple of weeks ago, the euro didn’t seem to “know” which way to go next? There is a reason for that, says The Wall Street Journal — carry trade:
“The tried-and-tested carry trade involves borrowing money in a low-interest country with a weak currency, and investing where a currency’s returns are higher.
“The carry trade helps to explain the euro’s counter-intuitive behavior during the Greek turmoil in recent weeks. The euro fell when there looked to be progress, and gained on bad news. Why? Well, when Greek news was good, risk appetite increased and investors borrowed low-yielding euros to fund bets abroad, making the euro fall. When talks floundered, risk appetite diminished and the money came back to Europe, helping the euro rise.”
There is a wave pattern called an “ending diagonal triangle.” As the name implies, it’s an ending pattern. It only appears in 5th, final wave of the basic 12345 Elliott wave sequence. Here’s its idealized diagram, in a bull market (for a bear market, flip it upside down):
Now, the useful thing about Elliott waves is that once you spot a particular pattern, you can make very precise forecasts where the market should move next — because the price should simply follow the pattern’s idealized path. (There are no foolproof forecasting methods, of course, but Elliott really allows you to narrow down the infinite number of future possibilities to a handful of probabilities.)
So, back to our ending diagonal triangle. On July 20, with EURUSD trading around 1.08, our Currency Pro Service team spotted a budding ending diagonal on a euro chart (partial Elliott wave labels shown on all charts). It called for a rally:
EURUSD [Posted On:] July 20, 2015 07:50 PM [Bottoming?] …the ending diagonal triangle is now our working model. …if we saw impulsive price action moving above 1.0870 it might provide some preliminary evidence.
The very next day, EURUSD popped higher (below). Now, within and ending diagonal, each leg is supposed to develop in three waves, ABC. So, our Currency Pro Service team labeled the rally a wave A, with a pullback in wave B due next (and then another rally in wave C). On July 21, we wrote:
EURUSD [Posted On:] July 21, 2015 06:09 PM …the rise should be wave a. The current pullback would therefore be…wave b… It should likely test… a 38.2% Fibonacci support at 1.0907. Once we can pinpoint the bottom of wave b, we’ll have a better sense of the upside prospects for wave c.
Next day, the expected pullback in wave B came on cue:
Next, the ending diagonal triangle pattern called for a C rally. It also developed nicely, hitting our upper price target:
At this point, the ABC leg (of wave 4) of the developing ending diagonal triangle was complete. So, next our Currency Pro Service expected a sell-off — which we saw on July 23 and 24:
You can surmise from the idealized ending diagonal diagram above that next EURUSD should see more weakness, to complete the pattern. Will it come? There are no guarantees, but it would be surprising if an Elliott wave pattern which guided our Currency Pro Service team so beautifully all week would suddenly “misfire.”
We’ll have to wait and see what political, economic or other news the mainstream headlines will blame the next move in EURUSD on. The good news is, with Elliott wave analysis in your toolbox, you have to do a lot less guessing.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline EURUSD: An Ending Diagonal Triangle in Action. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.