October Unemployment Numbers wayne@witterlester.com Oct 04, 2012
A colleague recently pointed out that unemployment numbers have only been released on the first Friday of the month for a couple of decades, which should rightfully be noted. However, whether you choose to view this statistic over the last 20 or 60 years, it plays out fairly consistently in this setup. With the S&P at 1460.37 mid Thursday, the S&P is up 1.37% for the first four days (Monday-Thursday) of this week. Below are all the occasions, since 1950, when the first four days prior to the first Friday in October were positive. Both the First Friday of October (28-8) and the following Monday (23-13) are solid in the setup.
The Friday and Monday of the October Unemployment Week
When the Trailing Monday-Thursday is Positive
FRIDATE 1ST FRIDAY WEEK NEXT
YEARMTDY MONTHU FRI MON FRI-MON
19501006 2.26 1.16 -0.60 0.55
19511005 1.98 0.25 -0.13 0.13
19531002 0.82 0.43 -0.47 -0.04
19561005 2.07 0.35 -0.04 0.30
19571004 1.39 -0.81 -1.33 -2.13
19581003 1.03 0.40 1.39 1.79
19591002 0.37 0.46 -0.10 0.35
19601007 0.37 0.58 0.20 0.78
19611006 1.56 -1.18 1.45 0.25
19621005 0.76 0.65 0.00 0.65
19631004 0.97 0.03 -0.21 -0.18
19681004 0.84 0.47 -0.01 0.47
19701002 1.80 1.00 1.54 2.55
19711001 0.19 0.60 0.28 0.88
19781006 0.71 0.24 1.03 1.28
19791005 0.78 1.00 -1.25 -0.26
19801003 1.38 0.97 1.86 2.84
19811002 3.82 1.95 0.13 2.08
19831007 2.54 0.31 1.08 1.39
19851004 1.69 -0.62 -0.74 -1.35
19861003 0.73 -0.09 0.46 0.37
19871002 2.24 0.23 0.00 0.23
19881007 0.18 2.09 0.06 2.15
19891006 2.24 0.51 0.28 0.79
19901005 2.17 -0.38 0.64 0.25
19921002 0.47 -1.40 -0.71 -2.09
19931001 0.28 0.51 0.01 0.53
19961004 0.96 1.25 0.27 1.53
19971003 1.61 0.48 0.76 1.24
19991001 0.42 0.01 1.70 1.71
20011005 2.76 0.16 -0.83 -0.67
20031003 2.35 0.94 0.44 1.38
20041001 0.40 1.52 0.32 1.85
20061006 1.30 -0.27 0.08 -0.19
20071005 1.05 0.96 -0.32 0.63
20111007 2.97 -0.82 3.41 2.57
20121005 1.37** ? ? ?
#UP-DN = 28- 8 23-13 28- 8
AVG%CHG= 0.39 0.30 0.68
MED%CHG= 0.44 0.10 0.59
