Wayne Whaley wayne@witterlester.com September 28, 2012
September finished up 2.42%. Since 1950, the Fourth Quarter is positive 85.2% of the time, following the S&P’s ability to post a profit in September, for an average 5.12% fourth quarter gain. The Drawdown measures in the far right column are calculated peak to trough.
FOURTH QUARTERS AFTER POSITIVE SEPTEMBERS
SP%CHG SP%CHG SP%CHG SP%CHG SP%CHG MAXIMUM
YEAR SEP OCT NOV DEC 4THQTR DRAWDOWN
1950 5.59 0.41 -0.10 4.72 5.04 6.50
1953 0.13 5.10 0.90 0.20 6.25 1.76
1954 8.31 -1.95 8.08 5.08 11.36 3.30
1955 1.13 -3.05 7.49 -0.07 4.14 6.57
1958 4.84 2.54 2.24 5.20 10.29 4.17
1964 2.87 0.81 -0.52 0.39 0.68 3.55
1965 3.20 2.73 -0.88 0.90 2.75 2.20
1967 3.28 -3.53 0.75 2.63 -0.25 6.53
1968 3.85 0.72 4.80 -4.16 1.16 4.22
1970 3.41 -1.25 4.74 5.68 9.31 4.72
1973 4.01 -0.13 -11.39 1.66 -10.03 17.30
1976 2.26 -2.22 -0.78 5.25 2.11 6.11
1980 2.52 1.60 10.24 -3.39 8.21 9.37
1982 0.76 11.04 3.60 1.52 16.79 7.05
1983 1.02 -1.52 1.74 -0.88 -0.69 6.37
1988 3.97 2.60 -1.89 1.47 2.14 6.99
1992 0.91 0.21 3.03 1.01 4.29 3.62
1995 4.01 -0.50 4.10 1.74 5.39 2.54
1996 5.42 2.61 7.34 -2.15 7.77 4.76
1997 5.32 -3.45 4.46 1.57 2.44 10.80
1998 6.22 8.03 5.91 5.64 20.86 5.66
2004 0.94 1.40 3.86 3.25 8.73 4.14
2005 0.69 -1.77 3.52 -0.11 1.57 4.23
2006 2.46 3.15 1.65 1.26 6.17 1.78
2007 3.58 1.48 -4.40 -0.86 -3.82 10.09
2009 3.57 -1.98 5.74 1.78 5.49 5.62
2010 8.76 3.69 -0.23 6.53 10.20 3.88
2012 2.42 ? ? ? ? ?
#UP-DN = 16-11 19- 8 20- 7 23- 4
AVG%CHG= 0.99 2.37 1.70 5.12 5.70
MED%CHG= 0.72 3.03 1.52 5.04 4.76
October is nothing to write home about in this setup, but interestingly, the six worse post 1950 Octobers, including 1987 and 2008, all followed negative Septembers.
A normal correction at some point can be anticipated as the average quarterly, peak to trough, drawdown was 5.70% in this setup and ranged from 1.76 to 17.30%.
Fourth Quarters after Positive Election Year Septembers
The Fourth Quarter after a positive Election Year September is 8-0 with a 4.39% avg return. The worse drawdown reduced to single digits.
FOURTH QUARTERS AFTER POSITIVE ELECTION YEAR SEPTS
SP%CHG SP%CHG SP%CHG SP%CHG SP%CHG MAXIMUM
YEAR SEP OCT NOV DEC 4THQTR DRAWDOWN
1964 2.87 0.81 -0.52 0.39 0.68 3.55
1968 3.85 0.72 4.80 -4.16 1.16 4.22
1976 2.26 -2.22 -0.78 5.25 2.11 6.11
1980 2.52 1.60 10.24 -3.39 8.21 9.37
1988 3.97 2.60 -1.89 1.47 2.14 6.99
1992 0.91 0.21 3.03 1.01 4.29 3.62
1996 5.42 2.61 7.34 -2.15 7.77 4.76
2004 0.94 1.40 3.86 3.25 8.73 4.14
2012 2.42 ? ? ? ? ?
#UP-DN = 7- 1 5- 3 5- 3 8- 0
AVG%CHG= 0.97 3.26 0.21 4.39 5.35
MED%CHG= 1.10 3.44 0.70 3.21 4.99
Fourth Quarters in Strong Years/Septembers
The S&P is up 14.56% year to date. Since 1950, there have been 14 years where
a positive September were a participant in a +10% first three quarters of the year. The Fourth Quarter after such a setup was 12-2, for a median gain of 4.59%. There were two cases (67 and 83) of fractional Fourth Quarter losses. There were seven cases of +5% Fourth Quarters.
FOURTH QUARTERS WHEN THE YEAR IS +10% AND SEPT IS POSITIVE
SP%CHG SP%CHG SP%CHG SP%CHG SP%CHG SP%CHG MAXIMUM
YEAR QTRS1-3 SEP OCT NOV DEC QTR4 DRWDOWN
1950 16.75 5.59 0.41 -0.10 4.72 5.04 6.50
1954 30.23 8.31 -1.95 8.08 5.08 11.36 3.30
1955 21.37 1.13 -3.05 7.49 -0.07 4.14 6.57
1958 25.18 4.84 2.54 2.24 5.20 10.29 4.17
1964 12.21 2.87 0.81 -0.52 0.39 0.68 3.55
1967 20.39 3.28 -3.53 0.75 2.63 -0.25 6.53
1976 16.69 2.26 -2.22 -0.78 5.25 2.11 6.11
1980 16.23 2.52 1.60 10.24 -3.39 8.21 9.37
1983 18.08 1.02 -1.52 1.74 -0.88 -0.69 6.37
1988 10.05 3.97 2.60 -1.89 1.47 2.14 6.99
1995 27.25 4.01 -0.50 4.10 1.74 5.39 2.54
1996 11.59 5.42 2.61 7.34 -2.15 7.77 4.76
1997 27.88 5.32 -3.45 4.46 1.57 2.44 10.80
2009 17.03 3.57 -1.98 5.74 1.78 5.49 5.62
2012 14.56 2.42 ? ? ? ? ?
#UP-DN = 6- 8 10- 4 10- 4 12- 2
AVG%CHG = -0.54 3.49 1.67 4.58 5.94
MED%CHG = -1.01 3.17 1.66 4.59 6.24
