Long term inside ranges expected to carry into Q1 2013; outside ranges should be good into Q2….
Intermarket Ranges…
• Gold….our long term model in technical repair consolidation from Sept’s break above 1683 but is still finding difficulty at 1798-1811; avoiding a fresh breakout….ranges tighten; inside range 1740 / 1660….outside range 1811 / 1620
• Silver…monthly pattern has more constructive edge with hold above 31.40 sees the top of the current range at 36.00 and major resist converging at 38.20 (Feb 2012 high)….inside range 36.00/ 31.00….outside range 38.20 / 28.00
• Copper…long term chart weaving in neutral with top bottom of the range from 373/ 323…..resolution expands outside range to 401/ 300
• Crude Oil…broad constricting wedge ….lower highs / higher lows ….inside range 91.00 / 84.50…outside range 96.50 / 81.00
• Gasoline…finding footing on retest of the bottom of 2 yr range at 254.00 moves into upside relief mode above 268.00; needs weekly close above 297 for full LT technical repair….inside range 297/ 255…outside range 334 / 243
• Brent Crude…mixed weaving flat monthly moving averages signal choppy range which lacks follow through…inside range 119.00 / 103.50…outside range 124.00 / 94.00
• Wheat…LT momentum loss < 8.71 following a series of lower high; candlestick sell wicks....inside range expands to downside 8.71 / 8.06...outside range 9.48 / 7.58
• Corn….double bottom pattern 2.25-2.36 turns our attention to the upside momentum repair line at 2.56…..inside range 2.56 / 2.32…outside range 2.80 / 2.14
• Soybeans…pattern higher lows stands out with buyers < 13.83....bulls have tough road ahead to retake the momentum repair line 16.01 leaves likely 2 way consolidation into seasonals....inside range 15.33 / 13.96...outside range 16.16 / 13.21
• Lumber….break out > 2009/2010 high begins to recover the beginning of the down leg starting May 2006….inside range lifted 359.00 / 322.00…outside range 382/ 299
• CRB….4th month lateral trend in neutral awaiting resolution pinching moving averages 317 / 277
• US 10yr Note Futures….lower high left standing 135’15-134’11 needs weekly close below 13-pd SMA at 132’26 to begin to turn the uptrend from May 2011….inside range 133’29 / 132’06…outside range 135’13 / 130’19
• US 30yr Bond Futures….lower high left against the top of the current LT projection range at 152’06….our momentum loss line at the 13-pd SMA rises to 146.25…..inside range 152’13 / 146’25…outside range 158’29 / 134’00
• US 10yr Yields….inside range1.83% / 1.57%…outside range 2.09% / 1.45%
• US 30yr Yields….inside range 3.14% / 2.50%…outside range 3.40% / 2.23% (projected)
• Bund Yields….inside range 1.59% (13-pd sma) / 1.25%…outside range 1.95%/ 1.06%
• Gilt Yields….3rd consecutive test of our first LT reversal line at falling 13-pd sma at 1.87%…inside range 1.87% / 1.54%…outside range 2.30%/ 1.37%
• BTP Yields…3rd consecutive lower low monthly bars pushing our next continuation line at 4.46%….inside range 4.89% / 4.23% extends Nov 2010 breakout….outside range 5.24% / 4.00%
• Spain Yields …3mth pattern of lower lows reaching the next area of multiple support convergences at 5.20%….inside range 5.61% / 5.12%…outside range 5.98% / 4.90%-4.83% major
• OAT yields…contemplating a 2x bottom basing pattern at 2.00%-2.02% but would need a retake the falling 5-pd SMA at 2.138% and 8-pd SMA at 2.33% to confirm….inside range 2.16% / 1.95%…outside range 2.33% / 1.88%
• DXY…perhaps a head shoulder pattern with right shoulder forming at 81.26; neutral LT technical stance….inside range 80.90/ 79.20 tightens…outside range 82.70 / 78.00
• EURUSD….LT monthlies in technical relief above 1.2690 (holding the November retest); moves into its next leg of LT repair above the 13-pd SMA at 1.2920; the next continuation at 1.3120…inside range 1.3120 / 1.2690…outside range 1.3300 / 1.2510
• GBPUSD…September’s repair consolidation > 1.5840 sees the top of the current trading band at 1.6400…inside range 1.5840 / 1.6420…outside range 1.6900 / 1.5350
• EURJPY….4mth rebound from July lows at 94.12 eyes our key reversal line at the 34-pd SMA at 109.60… a weekly close above this descending moving average would effectively reverse the downtrend from Sept 2008 a 155.30 and perhaps regaining its “risk on” moniker….inside range 109.60 / 102.10 …outside range 115.30 / 96.80
• USDJPY…reversing its downtrend from Nov 2007 at 115.00 with hold above the 34-pd SMA at 81.90; confirms higher low basing pattern; the next upside accelerator is 84.50…. inside range 84.50 / 79.90 … outside range 86.50 / 76.50
• USDCHF…November gets negative technical downgrade below 9335 exposes an air pocket to 9040….inside range 9500/ 9070…outside range 1.00 / 8790
• AUDUSD chopping in LT neutral awaiting a resolution of a 5 month lateral trend….inside range 1.069 / 1.005…outside range 1.109 / 0/961
Inside Range
• Represents intra-month momentum gain (top) / loss (bottom)
• If level is broken (sustained 5 minute move at a minimum, not quick spike up/down), it then typically becomes support/resistance for the remainder of the period
Outside Range
• Represents short-term trend changes
• If broken, the current trend may be in the process of reversing
• 2nd Outside Range (applied if needed) may be in play for an acceleration following a key reversal
