Subject: BGC Chart Chatter Technical Ranges First Look….Sept 5, 2012
SP1 lateral range highlighted by lower highs; still awaiting 1393 / 1412 closing resolution for directional bias => Inside Range 1393 / 1412, Outside Range 1373, 1387 / 1419.50, 1425
Russell 2000 (RUT Index) positive divergence to blue chips with hold above 805 => Inside Range 808 / 830, Outside Range 800 / 836
VIX extension reaches next ledge 18.50 with accelerator at 19.50 => Inside Range lifted 16.50 / 19.50, Outside Range 12.50 / 18.50
ND1 daily chart bending with lower high lower low; close below 2755 for technical slip => Inside Range 2755/ 2790, Outside Range 2722 / 2800, 2818
EURUSD finding footing against grouping at 1.2485; ECB chatter/ higher bund yields => Inside Range 1.2480 / 1.2665, Outside Range 1.2450/ 1.2725
TY1 (Ten Year Notes) mixed configuration tightening => Inside Range 133’03 / 133’25, Outside Range 132’16 / 134’11
GOLD inside consolidation day => Inside Range 1672 / 1698, Outside Range 1647 / 1717
Crude Oil broad flag pattern; lower high standing out => Inside Range 93.60 / 97.70, Outside Range 92.40 / 100.10
DXY higher low against 144-day SMA in series at 81.08 => Inside Range 81.10 / 81.80, Outside Range 80.25 / 82.30
· Represents intra-day momentum gain/loss
· For example, if the upper bound of the Inside Range is 1425, one can trade short against it/use this area as a stop and vice-versa
· If level is broken (sustained 5 minute move at a minimum, not quick spike up/down), it then typically becomes support/resistance for the remainder of the day
• Represents short-term trend changes
• If broken, the current trend may be in the process of reversing
• 2nd Outside Range (applied if needed) may be in play for a true trend reversal
SP 500 Futures 60 min Chart and Indicator ….short term pattern of early dip and afternoon rip may be inverting leaves tight buy sell chop range from Aug 28 with sellers above 1408.00 from 1410-1412 and buyers from 1397-1395.00. We’d stack this trading range for a measured objective on breakout. 60 min technical stance currently neutral to positive above 1402.75
ST OB > 1419.50 from 1418.00 /// ST OS < 1390.50 from 1393.50
VST 5 min saw two step signals in globex first with OS < 1397.50 and OB > 1403.50……resetting levels to 1410.50 /// VST OS < 1395.50
VST 15 min OB > 1411.50-1412.50 /// VST OS < 1394.50 lowered from 1397.25
SP 500 Futures 60 min Chart
SP 500 Futures 15 min Chart turning off test of yesterday’s mid day high 1408.00; lows remain unscathed at 1394.80
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 05, 2012….headline market with ECB meet getting 2 way price action; fast market conditions
08:28:08 SP1…lateral range highlighted by lower highs….inside range 1412.00 / 1393.00 to resolve…..outside range 1419.50 (1425.00) / 1387 (1373)
08:30:09 ND1….daily chart bending with lower high lower low; close below 2755 for technical slip….inside range 2790 / 2755…..inside range 2800 / 2705
08:36:32 RTA….positive divergence to blue chips with hold above 805…..inside range 829.50 / 808.50….outside range 836 / 800
08:38:08 TY1….mixed configuration tightening 133’29 / 133’08….outside range 134’11 / 132’08
08:40:40 VIX….extension reaches next ledge 18.50 with accelerator at 19.50….inside range 19.50 lifted / 16.50….outside range 20.75 / 15.75
08:42:55 DJIA divergance below 13150; rotation out of blues into small caps has been order of the day….inside range 13150 / 12920…outside range 13300 / 12750
08:45:19 DJTA….negative divergence < 5115; FDX caution pulls on group.....inside range 5060 / 4910....outside range 5115 / 4865 (4785)
08:54:25 EUR finding footing against grouping at 1.2485; ECB chatter/ higher bund yields….inside range 1.2665 / 1.2480….outside range 1.2725 / 1.2450
08:55:51 DXY…defensive consolidation < 81.80....inside range 81.80 / 81.05....outside range 82.30 / 80.20
08:57:56 Gold…inside consolidation day…..inside range 1698 (close) / 1672….outside range 1717 (1733) / 1647
09:00:05 Silver …testing mid April highs 32.58; partial overbought…..inside range 32.47 / 31.77….outside range 32.70 / 30.85
09:03:45 Copper….reversal consolidation working on continuation….inside range 354.80 / 342.50…..outside range 357.80 (accelerator) / 330.10
09:05:29 CL1…broad flag pattern; lower high standing out….inside range 97.70 / 93.60….outside range 100.10 / 92.40
09:06:29 Gasoline….double top left looming ….287.80 close for technical roll over
09:06:58 Grains led by soy complex/ wheat the laggard
09:10:30 US1 3 session stall at 152’00 leaves consolidation; sub 150’19 for momentum loss….inside range 152’00 / 149’29….outside range 153’06 /148’16 (146’06)
DAX futures….mixed configuration opens resolution range to 7078 / 6860; close above 7000 needed for momentum repair; buyers at 6900 so far
EuroStoxx Futures….daily technicals holding positive above 2380…..expanding inside range to 2485 / 2385 for resolution signal
FTSE Futures….leading negative divergence but finding footing against the bottom of the immediate range at 5625-5585; pattern watch would be bounce and retest capped at 5725
OMX Futures…..neutral negative consolidation pattern below 1045; avoiding continuation so far with hold above 1025; downside accelerator at 1017.00; falling fanning SMAs makes scaled up resistance
Bovespa Futures…..finding footing against bottom of neutral technical range at 5653 with 57600 for relief and 58500 as the top of neutral; downside continuations at 56100; 55400; 54900
Hang Seng Futures….negative continuation pattern below 19350 with next ledge at 18850-18740 for parabolic acceleration….ST OS < 18250; resist consolidates above 19500
Nikkei Futures….negative continuation below 8800 opens bottom of range at 8350 for oversold
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 04, 2012
08:26:18 SP1…lateral track in play still awaiting 1412/1393 closing resolution for fresh directionals; a series of lower highs but support standing fast….inside range 1412.00 / 1393.00….outside range 1419.50 (1425.00) / 1387 / (1373)
08:29:37 ND1…lower highs but momentum not cracked….inside range 2791 / 2757…outside range 2800 (2818) / 2722
08:32:00 RTA…lower highs higher lows wedge standing out….inside range 822/ 804.25….outside range 829.50 / 800.25
08:35:47 TY1….head shoulder formation standing out in dailies; Friday’s low the tell tale……inside range 134’11 / 133’08….outside range 134’29 / 132’08
08:37:16 VIX….lower high vs 18.50 ledge….inside range 18.50 / 15.30 ….outside range 20.75 / 14.30
08:39:26 DJIA …underside test 21-day SMA keeps momentum repair in check; higher low from Friday….inside range 13150 / 12960 tightens…..outside range 13300 / 12750
08:41:08 DJTA…wedge bottom test Friday; holding technical divergence….inside range 5115 / 4990…outside range 5200 / 4915
08:43:15 DXY….higher low against 144-day SMA in series at 81.08….inside range 81.80 / 81.08….outside range 82.30 / 80.25
08:46:14 EURUSD…double top lower high standing out at 1.2637-1.2628…..inside range 1.2605 / 1.2545….outside range 1.2700 / 1.2480
GBPUSD….continue to eye 1.5910 for fresh breakout; range bottom at 1.5770
08:47:36 Gold…stim bet presses March 27 high at 1699.60….inside 1698.00 / 1681.00….outside range 1733/ 1647
08:50:14 Silver extension nearing daily OB; partial OB > 32.25 ….inside range 32.47 / 31.38….outside range 32.70 / 30.45
08:52:40 HG1….reversal consolidation close > 342.50….inside range 354.80 / 342.50….outside range 358.60 / 330.30
08:55:26 CL1….lower high leaves 97.70 intact; lower high higher low wedge….inside range 97.70 / 95.10….outside range 100.10 / 93.60
08:58:42 Soy….leading grains with new all time high…..OB reset > 18.35….inside range 18.10 / 17.45….outside range 18.35 / 16.50
09:01:18 US1….another H/S formation jumping out….inside range 152’00 / 149’29….outside range 153’06 / 147’22
Economics Calendar: Week Mon Sept 3rd – Daily View
• Wednesday, September 5th: US (MBA Mortgage Applications, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs); EuroZone (EuroZone Retail Sales, Eurzone PMI Composite, Eurozone PMI Services);Other (Aussie Employment Change, Aussie Unemployment Rate)
• Thursday, September 6th: US (ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claim, Continuing Claims, ISM Non-Manufacturing); EuroZone (EuroZone GDP, BOE Rate Decision, ECB Rate Decision);Other (Aussie Trade Balance)
• Friday, September 7th; US (Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Change in Private Payrolls, Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, Unemployment Rate); EuroZone (GfK Inflation, British GDP);Other (N/A)
• Saturday, September 8th; US (N/A); EuroZone (N/A);Other (Chinese CPI, Chinese PPI)
Corporate events calendar – Week of Mon Sept 3
Wed Sept 5: earnings before the open (DG); earnings after the close (HRB, MW, PAY); analyst meetings (KFN, MXIM)
• Thurs Sept 6: earnings before the open (HOV, UTIW); earnings after the close (COO); sales (FAST); analyst meetings (QLGC, SYK)
• Fri Sept 7: earnings before the open (KR, LULU)
Corporate events calendar – Week of Mon Sept 10
• Mon Sept 10: earnings after the close (PANW); analyst meetings (CSC)
• Tues Sept 11: mid-Q updates (TXN); analyst meetings (DB, MET, PRU, SPW); sales (MCD)
• Wed Sept 12: analyst meetings (ABB, DB, MCO)
• Thurs Sept 13: analyst meetings (COV, NXPI, SONS, WDC); sales (GWW)
Corporate events calendar – Week of Mon Sept 17
• Tues Sept 18: earnings before the open (FDX); analyst meetings (AFCE, JDAS, TYC)
• Wed Sept 19: earnings before the open (GIS); earnings after the close (ADBE)
• Thurs Sept 20: earnings before the open (CAG); sales (RAD); analyst meetings (SWKS, VALE)
Some big events to keep an eye on
• Mon 9/3 – Democratic convention starts.
• Thurs 9/6 – ECB rate-setting meeting and Spain’s bond auction.
• Fri 9/7 – US jobs report for Aug.
• Tues 9/11 – Europe hopes to have bank regulatory blueprint published by 9/11.
• Wed 9/12 – Germany’s constitutional court to deliver a verdict on the ESM. AAPL expected to unveil new iPhone 5 on 9/12 too.
• Thurs 9/13 – Fed meeting. Communique 12:30pmET, forecasts/dots 2pmET, Bernanke press conf 2:15pmET.
• Fri Sept 14 – Eurozone Fin Min Meeting Sept 14-15.
• Thurs 10/4 – ECB rate-setting meeting.
• Fri 10/5 – US NFP jobs report for Sept.
• Mon 10/8 – Eurozone Fin Min meeting. Decision on EU31B Greek aid tranche could come at this meeting.
• Thurs 10/18-Fri 10/19 – EU Leaders Summit (bank union outline expected by this date)
• Fri 11/2 – US NFP jobs report for Oct.
• Tues 11/6 – US election
Big European dates
• Thurs 8/30 – Italy to auction bonds
• Mon 9/3 – Eurogroup meets to discuss Greece, Spain
• Thurs 9/6 – ECB rate decision. 8:30amET press conf
• Thurs 9/6 – Spanish bond auction
• Thurs 9/6 – Merkel to meet Rajoy
• Wed 9/12 – German court decision on ESM
• Wed 9/12 – Dutch elections
• Wed 9/12 – EU will present banking union proposals Sept 12.
• Thurs 9/13 – G20 Fin Min Meeting (9/13-14)
• Fri 9/14 – Eurozone fin min meeting (9/14-15)
• Mid Sept – Spain ratings change from Moody’s? From JPM’s P Wadhwa: “we expect Moody’s to resolve its negative watch on Spain by mid- September (it first put Spain on negative watch on 13 June). Historically speaking there is a high probability of follow-through after a negative watch listing, in the vicinity of 70-80%. Impact would be material, as Moody’s currently has Spain at Baa3. Greek, Irish and Portuguese 10Y yields rose an average of nearly 300bp after their first downgrade to sub-IG” (http://goo.gl/H2lmT)
• Thurs 9/20 – Rajoy to meet Monti (9/20-21)
• Late Sept – full Spanish bank audit due
• Late Sept – details of Spanish “bad bank” due
• Thurs 10/4 – ECB rate decision. 8:30amET press conf
• Early Oct – final decision on Greek bailout due
• Mon 10/8 – Eurozoen fin min meeting.
• Thurs 10/18 – EU Leaders Summit (10/18-19)
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