Subject: BGC Chart Chatter Technical Ranges First Look….Sept 11, 2012
Highlights: SP 500 futures finds footing in the globex session against the first grouping of supports at 1419.60 (March high) to 1418.00 (rising 8-day SMA) leaves a consolidation range into FOMC Thursday Sept 13.
Inside Range
· Represents intra-day momentum gain/loss
· For example, if the upper bound of the Inside Range is 1425, one can trade short against it/use this area as a stop and vice-versa
· If level is broken (sustained 5 minute move at a minimum, not quick spike up/down), it then typically becomes support/resistance for the remainder of the day
Outside Range
· Represents short-term trend changes
* If broken, the current trend may be in the process of reversing
* 2nd Outside Range (applied if needed) may be in play for a true trend reversal
SP 500 Futures 60 min Chart and Indicator ….late session runs sell stops < 1431.30 / 1427.70 just missing ST oversold in globex session (targeted 1419.75).
ST OB > 1446.50 correcting last week’s overbought /// ST OS <1419.75 from 1415.50
VST 5 min ……resetting levels to 1439.25 /// VST OS < 1432.25
VST 15 min first look ……VST OS issued in 1:00am globex dip below 1422.75…..OB >1440.50 from 1444.50 /// VST OS < 1421.00 from 1422.75 (1:00am issue)
SP1 Daily Resists …..1433.25……1438.00…..1444.000
SP1 Daily Supports….1427.00…..1419.60 / 1418.00…..1413.00….1405/ 1401.00/ 1399
SP 500 Futures 60 min Chart
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2012
08:25:43 SP1….finds support at first grouping in globex 1419.60 (March highs) to 1418.00…..inside range 1433.00 / 1419.60….outside range 1444 / 1405
08:27:37 ND1….closest to our first reversal line ; tested in globex session at 2775; close above 2800 needed for momentum repair…..inside range 2800 / 2775….outside range 2833/ 2740
08:31:57 RTA….consolidation pattern 845.50 / 829.50….inside range 845.50 / 829.00….outside range 852.00 / 822.25
08:34:37 TY1 …defensive technical pattern < 133’08….inside range 133’08 / 132’08…..outside range 133’26 / 131’22
08:36:05 VIX….retests and rebounds off 5 yr trendline 13.90…..inside range 16.50 / 13.90….outside range 18.50 / 12.50
08:37:46 DJIA…avoids breakout eyeing a double top 13370….inside range 13370 / 13220….outside range 13520 / 12920
08:39:27 DJTA….lifted to neutral > 5089….inside range 5120 for repair / 5035….outside range 5200 / 4915
08:44:33 EURUSD…consolidation pattern > 1.2724….inside range 1.2840 / 1.2724….outside range 1.2935/ 1.2665
08:46:28 GBPUSD….consolidation looking at second upleg > 1.6030….inside range 1.6030 / 1.5910….outside range 1.6150 / 1.5770
08:51:43 Gold ….consolidating in daily OB > 1733; awaiting moving average convergence to yesterday’s low (1727) for momentum loss…..inside range 1743 / 1727….outside range 1790 / 1698
08:54:16 Silver…consolidating in daily OB > 33.20….inside range 34.15 / 33.20…..outside range 34.90 / 31.95
08:56:15 Copper….continuation pattern > 366.50….inside range 376.50 / 358.10….outside range 385.80 / 349.30
08:57:48 Shanghai correcting OS but needing close > 2150 to reverse downtrend from May
09:00:24 US1…..neutral -negative consolidation < 149’29; 148’16 close continuation….inside range 149’29 / 148’16…..outside range 152’00 / 146’22
Additional global equity futures ranges
DAX futures….breakout close above 7160 / now consolidating sees next grouping at 7350 our first target for ST OB……inside range 7350 / 7070….outside range 7510 / 6800
EuroStoxx 50 Futures….March highs 2601 defines the top of the current range; leaves a consolidation with flag pattern expectations…….inside range 2572 / 2485….outside range 2598-2601 / 2427
FTSE Futures….short term technical repair consolidation pattern above 5737; the top of the current range is 5852; strong support is back at 5625……inside range 5852 / 5737….outside range 5980 / 5625
OMX Futures…..short term technical repair consolidation pattern above 1062 after 6 day hold above grouped support at 1025, leaving unscathed our downside accelerator at 1017.00….inside range 1093 / 1053….outside range 1111 / 1032
Bovespa Futures…..turns off test of the top of range at falling LT moving averages at 59700 / 60100; support holds a first test at 58600 to maintain……inside range 60100 / 58600…..outside range 61000 / 56100
Hang Seng Futures….pattern higher lows from June needing a close above 20000 to open the upper channel (21060)…..inside range 20000/ 19350….outside range 21060 / 18720
Nikkei Futures….neutral to negative short term technical weave……inside range 8970 / 8670….outside range 9130 / 8360
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2012….DJTA sees early positive divergence as prices consolidate Friday’s surprise MOC buy for size. FOMC Thursday has stimulus bet fears providing the downside cushion
07:54:05 SP1….breakout consolidation pattern leaves May 2008 1440.70 the next big nut; D/W/M levels follow at 1442-1444……inside range 1440.70(1444) / 1427….outside range 1453 / 1413 (1398)
07:55:48 ND1….momentum falters < 2818; immediatee retrace risk 2800….inside range 2835 / 2800….outside range 2865 / 2772
07:57:17 RTA….extension still short of March high….inside range 845.75 / 832…..outside range 852 / 822
07:58:49 TY1….negative consolidation < 133’08; versus retest lows pattern Friday….inside range 133’25 / 132’08….outside range 134’11 / 131’22
08:01:07 VIX….technical slip Friday break below 16.35…..inside 16.35 / 13.45….outside range 19.45 / 12.50
08:35:19 DJIA …retesting Aug high; breakout not confirmed……inside range 13370 / 13220….outside range 13510 / 12960
08:37:04 DJTA….still in negative divergence < 5115….inside range 5115 / 5015…..outside range 5200 / 4914
08:39:23 DXY…consolidating at the May breakout line at 80.17; nearing oversold….inside range 80.75 / 80.17….outside range 81.16 / 79.75 .
08:40:31 EURUSD…moving into consolidation pattern….inside range 1.2840 / 1.2745….outside range 1.2935 / 1.2665
08:43:27 Gold….daily OB reached at 1743; lower high sets up for corrective consolidation….inside range 1743.50 / 1718….outside range 1783 (Feb highs) / 1698
08:45:22 Silver ….extending in daily overbought > 32.95….inside range 34.42 / 32.95….outside range 34.90 / 31.95
08:49:01 Copper….extension pattern eyes daily OB > 377.00……inside range 377.25 / 358….outside range 385 / 348
08:56:52 Grains….raising reversal levels; Soy 16.65 / Corn…first reversal in play < 8.06 / Wheat < 8.59
09:00:54 US1…testing bottom of neutral technicals at 148’16….inside range 150’22 / 148’16….outside range 152’00 / 146’06
Additional global equity futures ranges
DAX futures….breakout close above March sees next grouping at 7350 our first target for ST OB……inside range 7350 / 7070….outside range 7510 / 6800
EuroStoxx 50 Futures….shooting star candle from Friday falls short of testing the March highs; leaves consolidation; flag expectations…….inside range 2572 / 2485….outside range 2598 / 2410
FTSE Futures….short term technical repair Thursday close above 5764.00; top of range back at 5852; strong support held the test back at 5625……inside range 5852 / 5745….outside range 5980 / 5625
OMX Futures…..short term technical repair above 1062 after 6 day hold above grouped support at 1025, leaves unscathed the downside accelerator at 1017.00….inside range 1093 / 1053….outside range 1111 / 1032
Bovespa Futures…..turns off neutral negative to neutral positive Friday close above 58600; testing top of range falling LT moving averages at 59700 / 60100; support begins at 58600 to maintain……inside range 60100 / 58600…..outside range 61000 / 56100
Hang Seng Futures….pattern higher lows from June needing close above 20000 to open the upper channel (21060)…..inside range 20000/ 19350….outside range 21060 / 18720
Nikkei Futures….neutral to negative short term technical weave……inside range 8970 / 8670….outside range 9130 / 8360
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 07, 2012 …payroll reaction gets 4.00 dip in SP1 but gold proves the stimulus canary, again surging on retake of 1700; +37.00 off low and 31.00 after numbers; leaves 1437.00 levels in weekly and monthly charts as next big overhang. China infrastructure stimulus begins to lift off intermediate term oversold
09:00:45 SP1….14 day lateral pattern resolved to upside; breakout reaching against May 2008 high at 1440.70/ weekly resists 1437; monthly resists 1437/ 1442-1444 next major; first supports now 1427-1425 to maintain…..inside range lifted 1444/ 1420….outside range 1444.00 (1452.75) / 1413.00 (1398.00 )
09:04:44 ND1….12 day lateral pattern resolved to upside; breakout above 2800 finds sellers against 2833 ledge…..inside range 2833 / 2803….outside range 2865 / 2770
09:07:54 RTA….extension runs stops > May higher extension reaching next chart ledge at 840-841.75….inside range 841.75 / 829.25….outside range 845.75 / 821.75
09:15:29 TY1…..rebounding off retest Aug lows/ chart support at 132’08….inside range 133’25 / 132’08….outside range 134’11/ 131’22
09:17:02 VIX…..momentum loss < 16.50 (makes for repair)….inside range 18.50 / 15.30…..outside range 20.75 / 13.50
09:18:55 DJIA …..no breakout in blues…..inside range 13300 / 13150….outside range 13370 / 12920
09:20:26 DJTA….holding in divergence < 5115…..inside range 5115 / 4950…..outside range 5240 / 4780
09:23:51 EURUSD acceleration > 1.2665; 1.2725; next accelerator 1.2780 ……inside range lifted 1.2840 / 1.2665….outside range 1.2935/ 1.2605
09:25:33 DXY…negative pattern consolidation continuation; reaching next ledge support at 80.30-80.15…..inside range 81.15 / 80.15….outside range 81.80 / 78.55 lowered
09:27:57 GBPUSD ….breakout continuation pattern > 1.5910….next accelerator 1.6030; next convergence 1.6150
09:31:39 Gold ….canary in gold mine rips on weak data stim bet; buy stops > March high at 1717.40 reaching next ledge at 1733.00….inside range 1752/ 1717….outside range 1768 / 1698
09:35:25 Silver extending OB has next major 33.60-33.65; bottom consolidation range at 32.80
09:36:40 Copper reversal consolidation continuation pattern > 354.60 opens next ledge at 366.80
09:37:16 CL1…bull flag consolidation pattern 97.790 / 93.60 awaiting resolution
09:39:28 Grains…overbought sentiment in soy complex/ wheat lagging
09:40:20 US1….finds footing at cupping 21-day SMA at 148’17 ….breakout still 152’00
Economics Calendar: Week Mon Sept 10th – Daily View
Tuesday, September 11th: US (Trade Balance, NFIB Small Business Optimism); EuroZone (French Nonfarm Payrolls, Spanish House Transactions, British Trade Balance);Other (Chinese New Yuan Loans, Chinese Money Supply, Japanese Machine Orders, Japanese CGPI, Japanese Tertiary Industry Index)
* Wednesday, September 12th: US (MBA Mortgage Applications, Import Price Index, Wholesale Inventories); EuroZone (German CPI, British Jobless Claims, French CPI, Spanish CPI, Italian Industrial Production, EuroZone Industrial Production, British Unemployment Rate);Other (N/A)
* Thursday, September 13th: US (PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, FOMC Rate Decision); EuroZone (ECB Sept. Monthly Report, Italian CPI, EuroZone Labour Costs);Other (N/A)
* Friday, September 14th; US (CPI, CPI Core, Advance Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, U. of Michigan Confidence, Business Inventories); EuroZone (EuroZone CPI, Spanish Labour Costs, EuroZone CPI);Other (Japanese Capacity Utilization, Japanese Industrial Production)
Corporate events calendar – Week of Mon Sept 10
* Tues Sept 11: mid-Q updates (TXN); analyst meetings (DB, MET, PRU, SPW); sales (MCD)
* Wed Sept 12: earnings after the close (PLL); analyst meetings (ABB, DB, MCO, NI)
* Thurs Sept 13: analyst meetings (COV, NXPI, SONS, WDC); sales (GWW)
Corporate events calendar – Week of Mon Sept 17
* Tues Sept 18: earnings before the open (FDX); analyst meetings (AFCE, INTU, JDAS, TYC)
* Wed Sept 19: earnings before the open (AZO, GIS); earnings after the close (ADBE, BBBY); analyst meetings (Adecco, KMT)
* Thurs Sept 20: earnings before the open (CAG, RAD); analyst meetings (SWKS, VALE)
* Fri Sept 21: analyst meetings (PFG)
Some big events to keep an eye on
* Wed 9/12 – Germany’s constitutional court to deliver a verdict on the ESM. AAPL expected to unveil new iPhone 5 on 9/12 too.
* Wed 9/12 – EU bank union roadmap to be published
* Thurs 9/13 – Fed meeting. Communique 12:30pmET, forecasts/dots 2pmET, Bernanke press conf 2:15pmET.
* Fri 9/14 – Eurozone Fin Min Meeting Sept 14-15.
* Thurs 9/20 – flash PMIs for Sept from China, Europe, and US
* Wed 10/3 – first Romney/Obama debate
* Thurs 10/4 – ECB rate-setting meeting.
* Fri 10/5 – US NFP jobs report for Sept.
* Mon 10/8 – Eurozone Fin Min meeting. Decision on EU31B Greek aid tranche could come at this meeting. Troika report on Greece due at this meeting.
* Mid-Oct – China’s 18th National Congress
* Thurs 10/18-Fri 10/19 – EU Leaders Summit (bank union outline expected by this date)
* Fri 11/2 – US NFP jobs report for Oct.
* Tues 11/6 – US election
Big European dates
* Wed 9/12 – German court decision on ESM
* Wed 9/12 – Dutch elections
* Wed 9/12 – bank union roadmap to be published
* Thurs 9/13 – G20 Fin Min Meeting (9/13-14)
* Fri 9/14 – Eurozone fin min meeting (9/14-15)
* Thurs 9/20 – Rajoy to meet Monti (9/20-21)
* Late Sept – full Spanish bank audit due
* Late Sept – details of Spanish “bad bank” due
* Late Sept – Spain ratings change from Moody’s? From JPM’s P Wadhwa: “we expect Moody’s to resolve its negative watch on Spain by mid- September (it first put Spain on negative watch on 13 June). Historically speaking there is a high probability of follow-through after a negative watch listing, in the vicinity of 70-80%. Impact would be material, as Moody’s currently has Spain at Baa3. Greek, Irish and Portuguese 10Y yields rose an average of nearly 300bp after their first downgrade to sub-IG” (http://goo.gl/H2lmT)
* Thurs 10/4 – ECB rate decision. 8:30amET press conf
* Mon 10/8 – Eurozone fin min meeting.
* Mon 10/8 – troika report on Greece due
* Thurs 10/18 – EU Leaders Summit (10/18-19)
Major macro events to watch
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* Tues Sept 11 – Draghi to meet Greek PM Samaras
* Tues Sept 11 – Germany’s Constitutional Court to issue opinion on ECB’s OMT.
* Tues Sept 11 – US trade balance (8:30amET) and JOLTs job openings (10amET)
* Tues Sept 11 – FB’s Zuckerberg to give first interview since co’s IPO Sept 11 at a TechCrunch conf.
* Tues Sept 11 – DB analyst meeting (Sept 11-12).
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* Wed Sept 12 – German’s Constitutional Court to announce ESM/fiscal pact ruling on Sept 12.
* Wed Sept 12 – Dutch elections.
* Wed Sept 12 – Eurozone IP for Jul (5amET)
* Wed Sept 12 – EU’s Barroso gives state of the union address. Will present bank union plan, among other items.
* Wed Sept 12 – Greece’s coalition partners to meet and discuss new austerity measures.
* Wed Sept 12 – AAPL product launch event (1pmET). Widely expected to show off new iPhone 5.
* Wed Sept 12 – USDA monthly report due on Sept. 12
* Wed Sept 12 – DB analyst meeting (Sept 11-12).
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* Thurs Sept 13 – Fed rate decision. Communiqué 12:30pmET, forecasts 2pmET, press conf 2:15pmET.
* Thurs Sept 13 – US PPI and jobless claims (8:30amET)
* Thurs Sept 13 – Fed symposium on stress testing models
* Thurs Sept 13 – G20 Fin Min meeting. Sept 13-14. Mexico City.
* Thurs Sept 13 – SNB policy review meeting.
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* Fri Sept 14 – Eurozone Finance Ministers meet. Sept 14-15. Cyprus.
* Fri Sept 14 – G20 Fin Min meeting. Sept 13-14. Mexico City.
* Fri Sept 14 – Eurozone CPI for Aug (5amET)
* Fri Sept 14 – US CPI and retail sales for Aug (8:30amET), IP for Aug (9:15amET), and Michigan Confidence (9:55amET)
* Fri Sept 14 – Fed symposium on stress testing models
* Fri Sept 14 – SEC roundtable to discuss ways to promote market stability following KCG and other recent events (Reuters)
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* Sat Sept 15 – Eurozone Finance Ministers meet. Sept 14-15.
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* Mon Sept 17 – Empire Manufacturing for Sept (8:30amET)
* Mon Sept 17 – Eurozone trade balance for Jul (5amET)
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* Tues Sept 18 – UN General Assembly opens in NY
* Tues Sept 18 – NAHB housing market index (10amET)
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* Wed Sept 19 – French parliament to examine EU fiscal pact on Sept 19
* Wed Sept 19 – US housing starts/building permits (8:30amET) and existing homes (10amET)
* Wed Sept 19 – BOE minutes
* Wed Sept 19 – BOJ decision (early Wed morning).
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* Thurs Sept 20 – Rajoy to visit Monti Sept 20-21 in Rome.
* Thurs Sept 20 – Spanish premier to meet Catalan president Sept 20
* Thurs Sept 20 – flash PMIs for Sept from China, Europe, and US
* Thurs Sept 20 – US Philadelphia Fed (10amET)
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* Fri Sept 21 – Rajoy to visit Monti Sept 20-21 in Rome.
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* Sat Sept 22 – Hollande/Merkel meeting.
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* Mon Sept 24 – European Parliament to hold hearing on LIBOR
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* Tues Sept 25 – US Case-Shiller housing price survey 9amET and FHFA house index 10amET.
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* Wed Sept 26 – France to publish ’13 budget
* Wed Sept 26 – US new home sales 10amET.
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* Thurs Sept 27 – US Q2 GDP revision, Aug durable goods (8:30amET) and pending home sales (10amET)
* Thurs Sept 27 – Eurozone M3 for Aug (4amET) and Eurozone confidence (5amET)
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* Fri Sept 28 – US personal income/spending and PCE deflator (8:30amET) and Michigan Confidence (9:55amET)
* Fri Sept 28 – Obama and Netanyahu expected to have meeting on Sept 28.
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* Wed Oct 3 – Obama/Romney debate. 9pmET. http://goo.gl/pywmM
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* Thurs Oct 4 – ECB rate decision. Press release 7:45amET/press conf 8:30amET.
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* Fri Oct 5 – US NFP jobs report for Sept.
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* Mon Oct 8 – Eurozone Fin Min meeting. Decision on Greek tranche disbursal could come at this event.
* Mon Oct 8 – troika to submit report on Greece Oct 8.
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* Thurs Oct 11 – vice presidential debate (Biden/Ryan). 9pmET. http://goo.gl/pywmM
* Thurs Oct 11 – Fed’s Stein speaks. First public address as a Fed official.
* Thurs Oct 11 – AA kicks off the Q3 earnings season.
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* Fri Oct 12 – earnings reports before the open: JPM, WFC
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* Tues Oct 16 – Obama/Romney debate. 9pmET. http://goo.gl/pywmM
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* Thurs Oct 18 – EU Leaders Summit (Oct 18-19). Brussels.
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* Fri Oct 19 – EU Leaders Summit (Oct 18-19). Brussels.
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* Sun Oct 21 – Spanish elections (local gov’t elections)
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* Mon Oct 22 – Obama/Romney debate. 9pmET. http://goo.gl/pywmM
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* Fri Oct 26 – MSFT launches Win8
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* Fri Nov 2 – US NFP jobs report for Oct
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* Tues Nov 6 – US elections
______________________________________________________________
Roger Volz
Director
BGC FINANCIAL L.P.
Cash Equities
646-346-7412
1-866-323-1585
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