Danny Riley has worked in the futures and options industry for 33 years, beginning in 1979 as a runner in the Chicago Board of Trade grain room. He then moved into the CBOT’s bond room, where he worked for several traders in Market Wizards No.1. Riley then moved to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s S&P 500 pit, where he went on to build the single largest volume desk in the index.
Riley’s S&P operation handles some of the largest accounts in the business, including some of the largest bank and hedge fund trading desks in the business. For nearly 10 years Riley did all the UBS program trading business, and is considered an expert in the field of program and algorithm trading.
Riley has been part of every major stock market event since 1985.
The global hot money is moving out of, not into, China. In the past year or so the country has seen huge outflows of institutional, investment cash, as foreign investors are not only pulling back, they are getting out. … For today: I have been bullish but I have also consistently been saying that the S&P is not ready to make new highs yet, that it needs …
Current, Downtown Chicago prices at the PUMP. MrTopStep.com’s Danny Riley took a snap shot of the BP Gas station prices at Orleans and Well St. in downtown Chicago on Monday August 272012. Riley says other downtown gas stations are charging [...]
According to most Fed surveys, nearly 90% of market participants believe the European Central Bank will purchase more sovereign debt and 80% said they expect the Federal Reserve will undertake additional quantitative easing. This is a big jump from June and brings us back to October of 2010, when over 90% of the traders polled thought the Fed would do a QE2 program. Here is the catch: … For today: After two days of sideways to down (back and fill), we think …
By Danny Riley Some people may think this story is coming late, but not from where we stand. In the first years after I started on the trading floor in 1978, most of the computers we used were just [...]
We think a good portion of the shorts have covered and that many of the bears have turned bullish. While the current rally seems to have some decent support behind it, we think it’s important to remember all the big ups and downs over the last few years and how once the S&P sucked the public into getting long, it reversed. With that in mind, …
Wherever Warren Buffett goes he gets a rock star’s reception. But over the last few years some of the shine has worn off. … In 2010 I was asked to speak at a conference in the Bahamas. When I got there I realized it was people in their 50s and 60s and older. They had come there to learn to trade crude oil for three ticks. They had been sold that if they “learn” they could make $200 a day or more. As a retiree, what more could you ask for, right? The day before I spoke … For today: In all honesty, the markets feel tired. The way we see it is …
Over three months ago I told the Pit Bull that there would be a day in July where total volume on the NYSE would drop below 500mil shares, and at 2:39 CT yesterday there were just over 350mil shares traded on the board. When we harped about how slow the markets would get over the summer and talked about how low the volumes were back then, most people said that low volumes don’t matter. Well, guess what, ladies and gentlemen, volumes DO matter. … For today: As we head into the end of the week and the August expiration, we do it knowing two things: …
By now you have seen every headline you probably care to read about how slow it is. If you have not gotten tired of it, I have! From my vantage point on the trading floor, I have been telling people about the volumes for a long time. … For today: It seems like the European headlines might be back a little early. … According to the S&P cash study, the Monday after the August expiration has been up 14 / down 14 of the last 28 occasions. We still think we are going up, but we also know we are reaching …
When the S&P futures were going down after the election, I never thought they were going to crash. Yes, fear had entered the markets because of the fiscal cliff, but did you really think the government was going to sit idly by? … After weeks of seeing the SPZ going down, the quick turnaround caught the bears completely off guard. When the S&P starts going back up the big funds that sold on the way down don’t get out right away. They get all twisted up; they want to be long but they are forced to sell the S&P for a hedge against long stock positions. They no longer need the S&P futures hedge, and on Friday when the SPZ rallied above 1400 it actually acted like a collar … For today: Our view is that the S&P can bounce a bit today but will be under pressure. We also do not think the S&P can just keep going up the way it has, that we will need to see some …
